At the beginning of September, the price of 904L stainless steel seamless pipe turned green. The market was driven by bearish sentiment to wait and see, and the overall transaction was weak. The lack of a favorable boost from the macro economy, the central bank today withdrew a net 40 billion yuan in circulation, and the scale of investment shrank. Although the 904L stainless steel seamless pipe plant is optimistic about the September market, most of the current quotations in the first half of September remain stable. In addition, iron ore has fallen below 800 today, which has suppressed the price of 904L stainless steel seamless pipes to a certain extent.

   Today's market price

   1. Futures steel fell by more than 100, and most of the spot price was lowered

   Today, the price of 904L stainless steel seamless pipe continues to weaken, and futures steel continues to fall sharply. Under the support of tight supply and demand, the bifocal performance is relatively strong.

   2. Spot

   Today, the market is full of wait-and-see sentiment. With the expectation that the price of 904L stainless steel seamless pipe continues to fall, speculative demand has declined, and most of the market quotations have been lowered:

   The current core factors affecting the price of 904L stainless steel seamless pipe:

   01. The central bank's investment shrinkage has a net return of 40 billion

   Entering September, in the context of relatively abundant market funds, the central bank reduced the scale of reverse repurchase, and today released 10 billion yuan to the market. Because 50 billion reverse repurchases expired, 40 billion net withdrawals were realized. Monetary policy has returned to stability, and macro-positive factors have declined.

   02. Heavy truck sales fell by more than 50%

   On the one hand, the sales of heavy trucks reflect the prosperity of the automotive industry, and on the other hand, it can also explain the progress of infrastructure projects. According to the latest data, the sales of heavy trucks in August this year were nearly 62,000, a decrease of 19% from the previous month and 52% year-on-year, a decrease of nearly 70,000 from the same period last year. This is the fourth consecutive sales decline this year. It reflects that the short-term demand for steel in automobile manufacturing and infrastructure projects is relatively weak.

   03, July steel exports fell by nearly 800,000 tons

   This year's steel exports have continued to rise with the improvement of overseas demand and the rise of international steel prices, but since the second half of the year, exports have slowed down significantly. According to data from the China Steel Association, China's steel exports in July fell by 789,000 tons from the previous month to 5.669 million tons, an increase of 1.476 million tons from the same period in 2020 and an increase of 99,000 tons from the same period in 2019. The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy since May has affected domestic steel exports and further reduced the international and domestic price gaps. The sharp decline in exports in July also reflects the current weakening of external demand. This trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year.

   04, more places to welcome heavy rains

   In early September, there will be another heavy rain in many parts of the country. According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Bureau, from September 3 to 5, there will be an obvious rainfall process from west to east from the east of the northwestern region to the Huanghuai region, involving Sichuan, Shaanxi, Henan, Shandong, etc. On the ground, this round of rainfall will weaken after the 6th. This also means that the demand for steel in the local market and transportation will continue to be affected by heavy rains, and the short-term transaction of 904L stainless steel seamless pipes is unlikely to rebound significantly.

   Tomorrow prediction

   In summary, today's iron ore led the decline in the black series, down nearly 8%, steel prices were generally weak, and most of the spot quotations of 904L stainless steel seamless pipes were lowered. In the absence of a favorable boost from the macro perspective, Shagang’s quotations remained stable in early September. Although Shagang Yongxing and Zhongtian Iron and Steel have raised their prices, they are only in the range of 50-80, which is relatively cautious. At the same time, heavy rains are still continuing in many places, and the overall market demand is weak. The terminal is mainly waiting and watching. It is expected that the price of 904L stainless steel seamless pipe will still fall tomorrow.